India and China: The return of the titans

Former president of the World Bank, James Wolfensohn, predicted that developing countries will become the dominant economic force in less than 50 years in a major address at UNSW last week.

Delivering the 2006 Wallace Wurth Memorial Lecture, Mr Wolfensohn said that India and China, which once commanded 50 percent of the world’s GDP, would re-emerge as economic powerhouses.

Mr Wolfensohn, who was also awarded an honourary doctorate of science by the University, said that by 2050, there would be a complete rebalancing of the current world order, predicting that only two of the current members of the leading seven industrialized nations, the US and Japan, will remain in that group.

“The great weight of the world as we move forward is no longer with the rich countries,” he said. “The developing countries will grow more than 20 times in terms of economic power and from 5 billion to 8 billion (people).”

Mr Wolfensohn, who is now Chairman of Citigroup International Advisory Board and his own investment and advisory firm, also spoke of the importance of last week’s 10-point plan between India and China and of the complementarity of skills between the two countries.

Mr Wolfensohn said that Australia was well-placed geographically to take advantage of the economic growth and changing relationships in Asia, but warned that there was a “formidable challenge” to prepare the next generation to engage more fully with these countries.

The full lecture can be viewed here

The lecture series is named for Wallace Charles Wurth, the Univeristy's first Chancellor. Previous speakers have included Sir Robert Menzies, the Dalai Lama, Noam Chomsky, Gerry Adams, Jose Ramos-Horta and Gareth Evans.

Mr Wolfensohn's conferral ceremony can be viewed here