“Australia's economy looks like it has avoided recession for 25 years. But right now, the economy is sputtering along,” says Richard Holden from the UNSW Business School.
The March quarter national accounts for 2017 on Wednesday 7th June are expected to show Australia is now matching the Netherlands, which holds the record for the longest period of near-continuous economic growth, clocking up 103 quarters without a recession, which is defined in Australia as two quarters of negative growth.
“We shouldn’t be celebrating this too much—there is the very real prospect that Australia’s run of uninterrupted growth could come to an end.”
If Australia has another positive quarter, it would become the outright record holder, as the ‘lucky country’ with the longest run without a recession, because the Netherland’s s run of positive GDP figures ended with the global financial crisis nearly a decade ago.
However, he urges caution. “GDP figures appear to show anaemic growth. That is further evidence that secular stagnation has hit Australia,” he says.
“Increased infrastructure spending, labour market reform and trade liberalisation are more important than ever to redress to these imbalances are raise potential growth,” suggests Professor Holden. “The resources boom and rising property values may have masked underlying weak or negative GDP growth.”
Professor Richard Holden can discuss the implications of the challenge facing Australia’s economy, GDP and how this will impact the dollar.
For comment call Richard Holden on 02 9385 4700, 0409 446 296 or firstname.lastname@example.org
Media contact: Julian Lorkin: 02 9385 9887