Australian-Owned Debris Projection
Below is the Australian-owned debris projection table created for this project and is current as of August 19, 2023. All citations in creation to this table can be seen under the 'citations' tab. Below the database contains another table to explain and define the datasets pertaining to each satellite.
| Satellite Name | Designed Misson Lifetime/ Expected lifetime |
Year Predicted Debris (Inactive) |
Debris Created (2023-2033) |
|---|---|---|---|
SKY MUSTER 1
|
15 Years (Gunter's space page)
|
2030
|
Yes
|
SKY MUSTER 2
|
15 Years (Gunter's space page)
|
2031
|
Yes
|
TYVAK-0171 (EG 2)
|
No Information
|
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
|
Yes
|
TYVAK-0172 (EG 1)
|
No Information
|
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
|
Yes
|
BUCCANEER RMM
|
5 (USC)
|
2023
|
Yes
|
I-INSPIRE II (AU03) (Cubesat)
|
0.5 years/ 6 months (Gunter's space page)
|
Decayed
|
No
|
SUSAT(AU01)
|
3 months (Gunter's space page)
|
Decayed
|
No
|
UNSW-ECO (AUO2)
|
No Information
|
Decayed
|
No
|
SIRION PATHFINDER II
|
No Information
|
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
|
Yes
|
Centauri 2
|
3 Years (Sky Brokers)
|
Decayed
|
No
|
M2 Pathfinder
|
No Information
|
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
|
Yes
|
WRESAT
|
No Information
|
Decayed
|
No
|
Australis - OSCAR 5 (AO-5)
|
No Information
|
Decayed
|
No
|
OPTUS AUSSAT A1
|
15 Years (USC)
|
2023 (already debris)
|
Yes
|
OPTUS AUSSAT A2
|
15 Years (USC)
|
2023 (already debris)
|
Yes
|
OPTUS AUSSAT A3
|
15 Years (USC)
|
2023 (already debris)
|
Yes
|
OPTUS AUSSAT B2
|
No Information
|
Decayed
|
No
|
OPTUS AUSSAT B1
|
15 Years (USC)
|
2023 (already debris)
|
Yes
|
OPTUS AUSSAT B3
|
15 Years (USC)
|
2023 (already debris)
|
Yes
|
WESTPACT
|
No Information
|
Many decades predicted
|
No
|
FedSat
|
No Information
|
Decayed
|
No
|
OPTUS C1
|
15 Years (expected use until 2034)
|
2034
|
No
|
OPTUS D1
|
15 Years + 5 years extended lifetime (Optus)
|
2026
|
Yes
|
OPTUS D2
|
15 Years + 5 years extended lifetime (Optus)
|
2027
|
Yes
|
OPTUS D3
|
15 Years + 6 years extended lifetime (Optus)
|
2031
|
Yes
|
OPTUS 10
|
15 Years + 5 years extended lifetime (Optus)
|
2029
|
Yes
|
SKY MUSTER 1
|
15 Years (Gunter's space page)
|
2030
|
Yes
|
M1
|
No Information
|
2023 (already debris)
|
Yes
|
Centauri 1
|
No Information
|
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
|
Yes
|
Proxima 2
|
No Information
|
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
|
Yes
|
Proxima 1
|
No Information
|
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
|
Yes
|
ACRUX 1
|
1-2 Years (Melbourne Space Program)
|
Decayed
|
No
|
TYVAK-0171 (EG 2)
|
No Information
|
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
|
Yes
|
M2-A
|
No Information
|
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
|
Yes
|
M2-B
|
No Information
|
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
|
Yes
|
CENTAURI-3
|
3 Years (Fleet Space Technologies)
|
2024
|
Yes
|
CENTAURI-4
|
3 Years (Fleet Space Technologies)
|
2024
|
Yes
|
MYRIOTA 7 (TYVAK-0152)
|
No Information
|
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
|
Yes
|
TYVAK-0173 (EG3)
|
No Information
|
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
|
Yes
|
CUAVA 1
|
No Information
|
Decayed
|
No
|
Binar 1
|
1.5
|
Decacyed
|
No
|
Centauri-5
|
No Information
|
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
|
Yes
|
Skykraft-1
|
5 Years (Skykraft Chairman, Mark Skidmore)
|
2028
|
Yes
|
Skykraft-1D
|
5 Years (Skykraft Chairman, Mark Skidmore)
|
2028
|
Yes
|
Skykraft-1A
|
5 Years (Skykraft Chairman, Mark Skidmore)
|
2028
|
Yes
|
Skykraft-1B
|
5 Years (Skykraft Chairman, Mark Skidmore)
|
2028
|
Yes
|
Skykraft-1C
|
5 Years (Skykraft Chairman, Mark Skidmore)
|
2028
|
Yes
|
Skykraft-3
|
5 Years (Skykraft Chairman, Mark Skidmore)
|
2028
|
Yes
|
Skykraft-3A
|
5 Years (Skykraft Chairman, Mark Skidmore)
|
2028
|
Yes
|
Skykraft-3B
|
5 Years (Skykraft Chairman, Mark Skidmore)
|
2028
|
Yes
|
Skykraft-3C
|
5 Years (Skykraft Chairman, Mark Skidmore)
|
2028
|
Yes
|
Graph 1 - Number of Satellites that Will or Will Not Create Debris Between 2023-2033
Of the 49 Australian-owned satellites launched, 48 were counted for this aspect of research, as satellite M2 has now split to become M2- A and M2-B. As such, M2 itself was not counted in this section. Subsequently, graph 1 shows that 35 satellites will create debris, by already being inactive or are predicted to become inactive during 2023- 2033, whilst 13 satellites will not contribute to the debris count, namely as they are already decayed or have a predicted lifetime beyond 2033. The table above shows that there was a lack of information found for some active satellites in regard to their designed operational or mission lifetime. This pertains to the satellite’s ability to transmit or receive signals.
Graph 2 - Number of Active Satellites Predicted to Become Debris Between 2023-2033
For the current 35 active satellites, information pertaining to only 24 of the active satellites could be tabulated. As such, the figure below accordingly represents those 24 satellites. Any information regarding the satellite’s designed or projected operational lifetime found, then a predicted lifetime was projected based off the launch year of the satellite. This was then recorded in the table to be reflected by the figure below. The 9 satellites predicted to become debris in 2028 is due to the 5 year designed mission lifetime of the 2023 SkyKraft satellites, as stated by Skykraft Chairman, Mark Skidmore (Blenkin, 2022). Additionally, debris of 9 of the satellites displayed can be attributed to Optus satellites that are currently inactive or are predicted to become inactive according to their designed operational lifetime, or due to extended lifetime adjustments. The remaining 11 active satellites that are not graphed above are all of CubeSat configurations, namely with shorter operational lifetimes. As such, in accordance with their launch years, it was predicted that they will become inactive between 2023-2033, hence, being recorded in graph 1.
Graph 3 - Operators Responsible for Australian-Owned Satellite Debris between 2023-2033
This graph represents the same as above but also shows the responsible operators for Australian-owned satellite debris over the next decade
