RP2002: Integrated ETWW Demand Forecasting and Scenario Planning for Precincts

_{Peer Reviewed Research Publications}

RP2002: Journal Article: Forecasting greenhouse gas emissions performance of the future Australian light vehicle traffic fleet

Knowledge of real-world greenhouse gas emission rates for traffic is necessary for forecasting transport greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents greenhouse gas emission rates that assist forecasting and modelling greenhouse gas emissions from light vehicles, i.e. private passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles under realistic traffic conditions. It develops confidence intervals for market shares by categories for fuel or energy efficiency on the Australian market for new light vehicles for the period 2016–2030. The model estimates realistic market scenarios by simulating likely variations of capital and running costs of alternatives for car buyers and by considering buyers’ willingness-to-pay for fuel/energy efficiency.

The results suggest that market forces will be insufficient to promote battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in Australia. On average the widths of the 95% confidence intervals for greenhouse emission rates are about 10–15% of the magnitudes of the emission rates, so that analysts can forecast transport greenhouse gas emissions with a reasonable level of certainty. The study suggests that policy interventions to accelerate the uptake of low or zero emitting vehicles may be required.

Read the full article here: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2017.03.011

RP2002: Journal Article: Supporting urban planning of low carbon precincts: integrated demand forecasting

Waste is a symbol of inefficiency in modern society and represents misallocated resources. This paper outlines an on-going interdisciplinary research project entitled ― Integrated ETWW demand forecasting and scenario planning for low-carbon precinct and reports on first findings and a literature review.

This large multi-stakeholder research project develops a shared platform for integrated ETWW (energy, transport, waste and water) planning in a low-carbon urban future, focusing on synergies and alternative approaches to urban planning. The aim of the project is to develop a holistic integrated software tool for demand forecasting and scenario evaluation for residential precincts, covering the four domains, ETWW, using identified commonalities in data requirements and model formulation. The authors of this paper are overseeing the waste domain. A major component of the project will be developing a method for including the impacts of household behavior change in demand forecasting, as well as assessing the overall carbon impacts of urban developments or redevelopments of existing precincts. The resulting tool will allow urban planners, municipalities and developers to assess the future total demands for energy, transport, waste and water whilst in the planning phase. The tool will also help to assess waste management performance and materials flow in relation to energy and water consumption and travel behavior, supporting the design and management of urban systems in different city contexts.

Read the full article here: doi:10.3390/su5125289

RP2002: Journal Article: Development of demand forecasting tool for natural resources recouping from municipal solid waste

Sustainable waste management requires an integrated planning and design strategy for reliable forecasting of waste generation, collection, recycling, treatment and disposal for the successful development of future residential precincts. The success of the future development and management of waste relies to a high extent on the accuracy of the prediction and on a comprehensive understanding of the overall waste management systems. This study defies the traditional concepts of waste, in which waste was considered as the last phase of production and services, by putting forward the new concept of waste as an intermediate phase of production and services.

The study aims to develop a demand forecasting tool called 'zero waste index' (ZWI) for measuring the natural resources recouped from municipal solid waste. The ZWI (ZWI demand forecasting tool) quantifies the amount of virgin materials recovered from solid waste and subsequently reduces extraction of natural resources. In addition, the tool estimates the potential amount of energy, water and emissions avoided or saved by the improved waste management system. The ZWI is tested in a case study of waste management systems in two developed cities: Adelaide (Australia) and Stockholm (Sweden). The ZWI of waste management systems in Adelaide and Stockholm is 0.33 and 0.17 respectively. The study also enumerates per capita energy savings of 2.9 GJ and 2.83 GJ, greenhouse gas emissions reductions of 0.39 tonnes (CO2e) and 0.33 tonnes (CO2e), as well as water savings of 2.8 kL and 0.92 kL in Adelaide and Stockholm respectively.

Read the full article here: doi:10.1177/0734242X13496304 

RP2002: Conference Paper: An integrated demand and carbon impact forecasting approach for residential precincts

Estimation of the demand of an urban precinct, related to Electricity, Transport, Waste and Water (ETWW), is a necessary step toward the delivery of quality living environments where daily activities can be conducted in a sustainable manner. A forecasting model that concurrently links demand in all four aforementioned domains to carbon emissions can assist planning agencies, infrastructure providers, operators and private developers to deliver low-carbon urban precincts in the future. Integration of modelling methodologies delivers improved ability, accuracy and flexibility when compared to typical forecasting approaches.

This details the outcomes of recent research efforts on the development of an integrated ETWW demand estimation tool with detailed scenario forecasting abilities. Focusing on the residential components of the precinct, modelling outputs provide detailed estimations of household demands and resulting carbon impacts across the four domains.

Impacts of non-residential land uses including high-value industry, retail, commercial and open space are also considered and reported on. Model users can estimate the carbon impact of resident population changes, various household structure types, carbon-friendly technologies and climate change for precinct locations across Australia. In addition, the tool accounts for interactions with external infrastructure such as transport networks, off-site waste disposal, water supply locations and grid-based energy supply.

Forecasting abilities of the model are demonstrated through case-study applications that reflect of ‘what-if’ type scenario investigations, important to policymaking and planning for future urban development. The user is ultimately able to explore combinations to achieve a low-carbon precinct development.

Read the full paper here:  https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57819-4_17

RP2002: Conference Paper: A comparison between capacity, cost and degradation in Australian residential battery systems

There are a number of factors accelerating the uptake of residential battery systems in Australia, these include: falling battery cost, increased energy prices and lower solar export rates. Given the new interest, it is important to analyse the optimal capacities of residential battery systems, for a standard Australian households.

This conference paper contributes an extension to modelling techniques by considering NPV energy costs, 25 year solar lifetime, commercially available modular battery sizes and DOD limits.

This paper presents an upper limit to battery cost below which the residential battery system is economically viable for the home owner; the results show that this is inversely proportional to the battery capacity. A battery degradation analysis is presented showing the trade-off between the money saved by installing the battery, the battery cost and the number of depth of discharge cycles and the frequency of discharge rate hours.

Read the paper

RP2002: Conference Paper: Residential precinct demand forecasting using optimised solar generation and battery storage

In the future there will be an increased uptake of solar and battery systems in the residential sector, driven by falling battery costs and increasing electricity tariffs. The increased uptake means we need new methods to forecast electricity demand when considering these technologies. This paper has achieved this goal using a two stage model.

Stage 1: A machine learning demand model has been created applying adaptive boost to a regression tree algorithm, achieving an RMS error of 0.25. The model has been used to simulate the individual base-demand for 50 homes in a precinct.

Stage 2: A linear programing model has been developed that determines the impact of solar and battery storage on that base demand, and optimizes the system capacities for each home in the precinct while limiting emissions. This model shows reducing emissions by 50% through solar and battery storage cost 2.6% more than the grid only scenario.

Read the paper

RP2002: ETWW Project Workshop No. 6

Forecasting for integrated demands and carbon impacts of a precinct in the ETWW (energy, transport, waste and water) domains will allow for the assessment of policy scenarios for low carbon futures. This CRC for Low Carbon living project has investigated gaps, synergies, alternative approaches and required research directions to achieve its goals. The aim is to seek the development of integrated tools for demand forecasting and scenario evaluation covering ETWW with identified commonalities in data requirements and model formulation. As a result of facilitated national workshops to date, researchers, project partners and industry interests have explored initial project issues, and established an approach for integrated ETWW demand forecasting and model specification, development and integration.

As a result of the project’s facilitated national workshops to date (with reports communicated through the CRCLCL’s website), researchers, project partners and industry interests have explored initial project issues, and established an approach for integrated ETWW demand forecasting and model specification, development and integration. In some cases, mature and well-researched models are utilised in forecasting routines and in other cases, new approaches have been developed. A focus of all modelling is on the household, however other land uses and activities that exists within a precinct are recognised and accommodated. 

The following report presents the outcomes of a sixth workshop associated with this project, hosted by Flinders University on 12th February 2016 at Flinders’ Tonsley campus, presenting the key outcomes of the workshop, summarising discussions during workshop sessions with conclusions and a synthesis of these outcomes presented for the next stages of the research progress.

_{CRCLCL Project Reports}

RP2002: Integrated ETWW Demand Forecasting and Scenario Planning for Precincts - Final Project Report 2017

This research project has developed a tool for integrated demand and carbon impact forecasting of ETWW demand at the precinct level, which supports scenario planning for alternative precinct development plans. This unique approach allows for interactions between the different demand domains and can accommodate the impacts of population changes, socioeconomic variables and household behaviour change in demand forecasting. Research efforts and the resulting tool has a focus on residential precincts in a mixed-use precinct context, providing a scientific and efficient basis for the assessment of the overall carbon impacts of urban developments or redevelopments. A broad range of demand estimates and related carbon impact estimates can be achieved at high levels of accuracy with scenarios recognising the inter-domain demand relationships that occur at a household level.

RP2002 Final Project Report 2017 (6869943 PDF)

RP2002: ETWW Project Workshop No. 6

Forecasting for integrated demands and carbon impacts of a precinct in the ETWW (energy, transport, waste and water) domains will allow for the assessment of policy scenarios for low carbon futures. This CRC for Low Carbon living project has investigated gaps, synergies, alternative approaches and required research directions to achieve its goals. The aim is to seek the development of integrated tools for demand forecasting and scenario evaluation covering ETWW with identified commonalities in data requirements and model formulation. As a result of facilitated national workshops to date, researchers, project partners and industry interests have explored initial project issues, and established an approach for integrated ETWW demand forecasting and model specification, development and integration.

As a result of the project’s facilitated national workshops to date (with reports communicated through the CRCLCL’s website), researchers, project partners and industry interests have explored initial project issues, and established an approach for integrated ETWW demand forecasting and model specification, development and integration. In some cases, mature and well-researched models are utilised in forecasting routines and in other cases, new approaches have been developed. A focus of all modelling is on the household, however other land uses and activities that exists within a precinct are recognised and accommodated. 

The following report presents the outcomes of a sixth workshop associated with this project, hosted by Flinders University on 12th February 2016 at Flinders’ Tonsley campus, presenting the key outcomes of the workshop, summarising discussions during workshop sessions with conclusions and a synthesis of these outcomes presented for the next stages of the research progress.

RP2002: ETWW Project Workshop No. 6 (1362909 PDF)

RP2002: ETWW Project Workshop No. 5

Forecasting for integrated demands and carbon impacts of a precinct in the ETWW (energy, transport, waste and water) domains will allow for the assessment of policy scenarios for low carbon futures. This CRC for Low Carbon living project has investigated gaps, synergies, alternative approaches and required research directions to achieve its goals. The aim is to seek the development of integrated tools for demand forecasting and scenario evaluation covering ETWW with identified commonalities in data requirements and model formulation. As a result of facilitated national workshops to date, researchers, project partners and industry interests have explored initial project issues, and established an approach for integrated ETWW demand forecasting and model specification, development and integration.

The following report presents the outcomes of a fifth workshop associated with this project, held at Flinders University's Tonsley Campus on Thursday 20th August 2015. Workshop 5 has provided key researchers and interested partied the opportunity to present updates of recent research progress and current research status and discuss issues related to data specification, collection and use across domains,  forecast application including the development of a foundation model and scenario application and future directions for the research. This report presents the key outcomes of the workshop, summarising discussions during workshop sessions with conclusions and a synthesis of these outcomes presented for the next stages of the research progress.

RP2002 ETWW Project Workshop 5 Report (5888175 PDF)

RP2002: ETWW Project Workshop No. 3 Summary Report

The following report presents the outcomes of the third workshop associated with this project, held at the University of South Australia’s Mawson Lakes Campus, University Boulevard, Mawson Lakes, South Australia on Thursday the 15th of May 2014 at Room X1-03 at from 10:00am until 4:00pm. The focus of this workshop is to follow on from the second ETWW project workshop (Holyoak, 2014), focusing on model specification, development and integration for integrated ETWW demand forecasting. This report presents the key outcomes of the workshop, summarising discussions during workshop sessions with conclusions and a synthesis of these outcomes presented for the next stages of the research progress.

The development of a shared platform for integrated ETWW (energy, transport, waste and water) demand forecasting and scenario planning will allow for the assessment of the carbon impacts and beyond under policy scenarios such as low carbon futures. This CRC for Low Carbon living project will focus on gaps, synergies, alternative approaches and required research directions to achieve its goals. It will include a series of facilitated national workshops on demand forecasting for ETWW utilities and services and on scenario generation and appraisal. The aim is to seek the development of integrated tools for demand forecasting and scenario evaluation covering ETWW with identified commonalities in data requirements and model formulation. It will first (Phase 1) develop an integrated framework for demand forecasting that will then be fully developed and implemented in Phase 2. A method for including the impacts of household behaviour change in demand forecasting will be a major component of the framework. In this way overall carbon impacts of urban developments or redevelopments can be assessed effectively and efficiently. 

ETWW Workshop 3 Summary Report (1505194 PDF)

_{Fact sheet}

RP2002 FACTSHEET: Integrated Demand & Forecasting Tool for Energy, Transport, Waste and Water

RP2002: Factsheet: Integrated Demand & Forecasting Tool for Energy, Transport, Waste and Water (1129536 PDF)