Christian König genannt Kersting Experimental Asset Markets
Do experimental asset market results replicate? High-powered preregistered replications of 17 claims.
Event details
Do experimental asset market results replicate? High-powered preregistered replications of 17 claims.
Experimental asset markets provide a controlled approach to studying financial markets. We attempt to replicate 17 key results from four prominent studies, collecting new data from 166 markets with 1,544 participants. Only 3 of the 14 original results reported as statistically significant were successfully replicated, with an average replication effect size of 2.9% of the original estimates. We fail to replicate findings on emotions, self-control, and gender differences in bubble formation but confirm that experience reduces bubbles and cognitive skills explain trading success. Our study demonstrates the importance of replications in enhancing the credibility of scientific claims in this field.
Expression of interest
About the speaker
Christian holds a Venia Docendi in Economics and is currently a Postdoctoral Researcher at the Department of Banking and Finance at the University of Innsbruck. His research primarily focuses on decision-making under risk and uncertainty in financial contexts. In addition, he has conducted research on social norms and led large-scale meta-research projects on the peer review process and wisdom-of-the-crowd prediction aggregation.
Learn more about him on his webpage.