UNSW Business School BIBaP

Joshua Miller | The hot hand fallacy fallacy

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Male and female professionals discussing in board room. Disabled businesswoman communicating with coworkers in meeting. They are at office.
Time

28/08/2018 - 12:00 - 13:00

Address

Room 464, UNSW Business School, UNSW

Description

  • August 28, 2020
  • Speaker: Joshua Miller
  • Topic: The Hot Hand Fallacy Fallacy

Abstract

The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications for economics and finance.  We uncover a subtle, but critical, statistical bias that invalidates previous evidence supporting the hot hand fallacy in its canonical domain, basketball shooting. We re-assess and re-analyze basketball shooting and betting data. We find that the hot hand exists, and that players can bet on it successfully.

About the speaker

Joshua Miller  is visiting from the University of Alicante. He is doing very interesting work on the hot-hand and gambler’s fallacy and related problems. (Econometrica had the good sense to recently accept a key paper in his series of papers with Adam Sanjurjo for publication.)