Minority governments have been part of Australia’s political history since Federation.
In the country’s early decades, Prime Ministers Edmund Barton, Alfred Deakin, Chris Watson, George Reid and Andrew Fisher all led without commanding a majority in the House of Representatives. Since the second world war, majority governments have become the norm at the national level, underpinned by the two-party system of Labor and the Liberal-National Coalition.
Minority government has been rare, with the notable exception of Julia Gillard’s Labor government from 2010 to 2013. However, at the state/territory level, minority governments are far more common.
The 2025 federal election could mark another shift. While Labor has pulled ahead in the polls over the course of the campaign, a minority government remains a real possibility.
Even if a slim majority is achieved, the trend of falling primary votes for both major parties suggests minority governments could become more common in the years ahead.
We have examined new data from more than 3,600 respondents in the March/April wave of the 2025 Election Monitoring Survey Series (EMSS) from the School of Politics and International Relations (SPIR) at the ANU. The results shed light on how Australians feel about the prospect of minority government, and how these attitudes could shape political expectations.
Australians are more accepting of minority governments
When respondents were asked whether they found the idea of a minority government acceptable, more said they did (39.3%) than said they did not (32.6%).
This pattern is especially strong among Labor voters, minor party supporters, and those undecided about their vote. Only among Liberal voters was a minority government viewed more negatively, with a majority (51.8%) saying it would be unacceptable.
These findings suggest that minority government does not present the widespread illegitimacy and inefficiency to the electorate that is sometimes claimed by political leaders.
Fears of instability, but hopes for accountability
Despite growing acceptance, Australians are divided about the likely consequences of a minority government.
When asked whether a minority government would make politics more unstable or more representative and accountable, the country was split. About 42.7% expected more instability, while 37.6% expected greater representativeness. Another 19.6% believed it would make no real difference.
Again, partisan divides are stark. Coalition voters overwhelmingly expect instability (62.3%), whereas minor party supporters are more optimistic about minority government delivering better accountability.
These mixed expectations suggest while many suspect minority government will be a rocky ride, most expect little to no change. This is in contrast to recent claims a return to minority government would either further damage democracy or revitalise it by forcing change.
Public supports reforms to make minority government work
If a minority government emerges post-election, institutions will need to adapt. Some changes will be legislative, others cultural, some political.
Recognising the challenges that minority governments can bring, Australians are supportive of modest reforms to help them function more effectively.
Nearly half (47.6%) support establishing an independent body to oversee power-sharing agreements between major parties and crossbench MPs. A significant share (42.7%) also back requiring minority governments to sign formal agreements with the independents or minor parties they rely on.