Meet Dr Timothy Neal: a Scientia Senior Lecturer at the School of Economics and the Institute for Climate Risk & Response (ICRR) who researches the link between climate and environmental economics.
I have always wanted to use my analytical skills to make a difference. Having wide interests, I didn’t always know where I would try to do that. I started my university journey in political science and philosophy, pivoting to economics after realising the impact research can have on policy. I was an economic consultant for a couple of years before deciding to do a PhD in economics. Academia can be a difficult career path, but I felt I owed it to myself to try.
While I love economics, in my leisure time, you will find me reading about history and other things. I strongly believe in well-rounded knowledge and experience, even in the very specialised space of academia. Working at UNSW and with the UNSW Institute for Climate Risk and Response has been a great privilege, and I am excited to help advance its agenda for inspiring climate action.
I am passionate about wildlife and the wilderness, there is nothing quite so special as travelling through these areas and witnessing the abundance of life that inhabits these (now rare) parts of the planet. I imagine that like many other researchers in climate change across all disciplines, I do not want the world to be left in a worse state for the next generation than when I was young. The fact that this is extremely likely to occur motivates me to contribute however I can.
The rapid and severe changes in our climate are astonishing, and I feel a responsibility to research this area. I hope my work, no matter how small, can contribute to guiding our society in the right direction on environmental issues.
I see climate change as a fundamentally economic problem, as it is economic activity that is driving changes to the climate. Not only that, but economics also has a lot to contribute to policy design in the mitigation of future climate change and our understanding of how to best adapt to it.
My skills are in statistical analysis of observational data, which has a very long history in economics and has been applied to many areas in both economic and social policy. There is great potential in using these tools to better understand the likely impacts of future climate change, how we can best adapt to our situation, and lastly, how we can best avoid it. My work focuses on the first two of these areas, as they have received much less attention in economics to date and are also important.
In the past, I have done work related to the potential impact of climate change on future agricultural productivity (i.e. crop yield). I am very interested in applying my skills to impacts that are harder to estimate and receive less attention. The first example is our understanding of the macroeconomic impacts of climate change, in which I am currently working.
The problem in this literature is that economic models have failed to predict significant impacts from even severe warming, which is in stark contrast to how scientists characterise the implications of severe climate change. I believe the issue is due to poor assumptions made in the design of these economic models, and I am working to address that.
I am also working to extend the modelling of the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity to food prices. Food price impacts are much more difficult to estimate, as markets are determined not just by local weather conditions (like crop yield is), but also the intersection of supply and demand locally and overseas in complex ways.
I hope this project can be a first step in advancing our understanding of future food security in advanced economies and the potential for widespread famine in developing ones.