Ask an Expert: How do we build an energy system that can handle uncertainty?

The clean energy transition is about much more than building solar farms and wind turbines, as Australia transforms the way it generates and uses electricity, energy systems must also become smarter, more connected and better able to cope with uncertainty.

Associate Professor Huadong Mo, Co-Director of the new Resilient Intelligent Systems for Clean Energy Research (RISER) Hub at UNSW Canberra, explains why resilience is becoming increasingly important, how intelligent technologies are changing the way energy is managed, and what the future of Australia's energy system could look like.

What kinds of uncertainty do energy systems need to cope with?

Modern energy systems face uncertainty from many directions. One of the biggest changes is the growing reliance on renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, which depend on weather conditions and can vary significantly throughout the day. While these technologies are essential for reducing emissions, they introduce new challenges for maintaining a stable and reliable energy supply.

At the same time, electricity demand is becoming more difficult to predict especially as households and businesses are increasingly adopting rooftop solar, batteries, electric vehicles and smart appliances, all of which change how and when energy is used. On top of this we have new industries, data centres and AI technologies that are also likely to increase energy consumption in ways that are still evolving.

Extreme weather events such as bushfires, floods, storms and heatwaves can damage infrastructure, while cyber incidents, equipment failures and global supply chain disruptions can affect the availability of technologies and services.

Why are energy systems becoming more complex?

The traditional electricity grid was relatively straightforward. It was designed around a small number of large power stations that supplied electricity to homes and businesses in one direction, and operators had a high degree of visibility and control over the system.

Today that model is changing rapidly as millions of Australians now have rooftop solar systems and an increasing number are installing home batteries or purchasing electric vehicles.

Consumers are no longer just users of electricity they are also becoming producers, storage providers and active participants in the energy system. 

The technologies involved are also becoming more interconnected as energy systems now rely heavily on digital communications, sensors, software platforms and automated control systems. A decision made in one part of the network can have impacts elsewhere in ways that are far more dynamic than in traditional power systems.

As a result, energy systems are evolving into complex cyber-physical systems where engineering, data, communications and human behaviour all interact. Managing that complexity is one of the major challenges, and opportunities, of the clean energy transition.

Rather than simply reacting to when a problem occurs, future energy systems need to be designed to anticipate, adapt to and recover from these uncertainties. 

How can data and intelligent technologies help?

One of the most exciting developments in energy is the ability to use data to understand what's happening across a system in real time. Sensors, smart meters and connected devices can provide a much clearer picture of energy generation, consumption and network performance than ever before.

Artificial intelligence and other intelligent technologies allow us to analyse these large volumes of data and identify patterns that humans might otherwise miss.

For example, AI can help predict equipment failures before they occur, forecast renewable energy generation, or identify unusual behaviour that could indicate a developing fault.

These technologies can also help coordinate increasingly complex energy systems. As more households install batteries and electric vehicles, there is a growing need to manage thousands or even millions of distributed energy resources simultaneously. Intelligent systems can help balance supply and demand across the network, reduce energy waste and make better use of existing infrastructure.

This is important not only for reliability but also for affordability. Building new energy infrastructure is expensive, so if we can use data and intelligent technologies to operate existing systems more efficiently, we can reduce costs across the energy system. Better forecasting, smarter energy management and more efficient use of renewable energy all have the potential to lower operational costs and help keep electricity more affordable for households and businesses.

Importantly, these technologies shift us from waiting for problems to occur, to instead anticipating risks, making better decisions and building energy systems that are more reliable, resilient, affordable and sustainable.

What does a resilient energy system look like?

A resilient energy system is one that can continue providing reliable electricity, even when unexpected events occur, this could include extreme weather, equipment failures, cyber-attacks or sudden changes in energy demand.

Historically, resilience often relied on redundancy - having backup infrastructure available if something failed. While redundancy remains important, modern resilience is increasingly about adaptability and flexibility. Energy systems need to respond quickly to changing circumstances and continue operating under a wide range of conditions.

In practice, this may involve a mix of renewable energy generation, battery storage, microgrids, advanced monitoring systems and intelligent control technologies. Rather than relying heavily on a small number of large assets, resilient systems can draw on many distributed resources working together.

A good example is a community that can continue operating critical services during a major disruption because local energy resources are able to support hospitals, communications networks or emergency facilities. Resilience is ultimately about ensuring that communities remain safe, connected and productive when challenges arise.

What excites you most about the new RISER Hub? 

I am particularly excited about the opportunities the new RISER Hub will create, as it can bring together expertise across AI, intelligent systems, clean energy and resilience. The hub will create new opportunities for collaboration and innovation with academics, industry, and governments enabling us to address some of the most pressing challenges facing future energy systems. Most importantly, it will accelerate the translation of cutting-edge research into practical solutions with real-world impact.