Disaster preparedness must be seen as an ongoing national security challenge rather than responding to isolated events.
Australia must fundamentally shift the way it prepares for and responds to disasters, treating them as an ongoing national security challenge rather than a series of isolated emergencies, according to a new report warning that the nation remains vulnerable to increasingly frequent and severe climate-driven events.
The report, following on from of a UNSW Canberra World in Transition roundtable event that brought together a wide range of subject matter experts, argues that Australia's current disaster framework remains heavily focused on responding to crises once they occur, while underinvesting in preparedness, mitigation and long-term recovery. As climate change accelerates the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, experts warn that reactive approaches will leave communities, infrastructure and critical systems increasingly exposed.
UNSW Canberra Professor Douglas Guilfoyle, the report’s lead author, said disasters should no longer be viewed as temporary disruptions but as persistent threats capable of triggering cascading failures across interconnected systems, including energy, transport, communications and healthcare.
“The devastating Black Summer bushfires highlighted these vulnerabilities, exposing weaknesses in communications networks, infrastructure resilience and emergency preparedness,” he said.
“Future disasters are likely to overlap with other crises, creating complex emergencies that strain national capacity and increase risks to Australia's security and economic stability.”
The report makes four major recommendations designed to strengthen Australia's disaster resilience.
The primary recommendation is a significant rebalancing of funding and policy away from short-term emergency response and towards prevention, preparedness and mitigation.
“Governments have traditionally prioritised visible disaster responses over investments that reduce risk before crises occur,” Prof. Guilfoyle said.
“Instead, disaster management should encompass the entire lifecycle, from prevention and readiness through to recovery and rebuilding. Resilience cannot be created in the middle of a disaster.”
There should also be a focus on "building back better" rather than simply restoring damaged infrastructure and communities to their pre-disaster state.
Long-term impacts including mental health challenges, domestic violence, social disruption and loss of community trust should also receive greater attention during recovery efforts.
The report warns that Australia's growing reliance on centralised disaster responses risks undermining local capability.
“While governments and emergency agencies play a crucial role, communities themselves remain the true first responders in most disasters,” Prof. Guilfoyle said.
“Yet volunteer numbers are falling in many disaster-prone areas due to demographic change, rising living costs and declining community participation.
“To address this, there should be a shift toward community-led resilience programs that empower local communities to manage risks, strengthen preparedness and develop solutions tailored to their unique circumstances.”
The report also raised concerns about Australia's growing reliance on the Australian Defence Force (ADF) during domestic disasters.
Although public support for ADF involvement remains high, Defence is increasingly being treated as a default first responder despite its primary role being national defence.
“No one doubts the important work the ADF has done in this space,” Prof. Guilfoyle said.
“But frequent disaster deployments risk diverting resources from military readiness while potentially reducing incentives to build civilian disaster-response capabilities.
“The government should clarify the ADF's role within a broader whole-of-nation disaster framework and invest in increased civilian capacity before disasters occur.”
Another key finding is that Australia is failing to effectively use data to guide disaster planning and investment.
Critical information relating to health, energy, infrastructure and supply chains remains fragmented across agencies, making it difficult to assess risks and prepare for future shocks.
Australia would benefit from the creation of a more integrated, data-driven system that uses scenario modelling and cross-sector planning to inform policy decisions.
The report also warned that Australia's dependence on foreign-owned technologies, software platforms and supply chains creates strategic vulnerabilities during crises.
Ultimately, the report argues that Australia must abandon the assumption that disasters are rare events.
With climate change increasing the certainty of future crises, policymakers are being urged to adopt a national resilience model that anticipates continuous disruption and invests accordingly.
The message is clear: Australia's disaster strategy can no longer be centred on emergency response alone. Building stronger communities, strengthening critical systems, improving the use of data and investing in preparedness now will determine how effectively the nation copes with the disasters of the future.
The World in Transition initiative is a flagship UNSW Canberra program exploring how geopolitical, strategic and technological shifts are reshaping Australia’s external environment and the practice of statecraft in a competitive age. Through public and closed-door conversations that engage leading relevant Australian and international expertise, the World in Transition initiative will drive new thinking about the major forces reshaping Australia’s external environment and pragmatic recommendations on how Australia should respond.
The full report is available online.