Dr Alexandra Hogan
Senior Research Associate

Dr Alexandra Hogan

PhD (Mathematical Epidemiology, Australian National University, 2017)
BSc (Applied Mathematics, Honours I, University of Sydney, 2009)

Medicine & Health
School of Population Health

As a mathematical epidemiologist, I work on mathematical models of infectious diseases, focussed on estimating the public health impact of new vaccines. The focus of my current research is to develop dynamic models to help inform longer term planning of ongoing COVID-19 vaccination programs in Australia and the broader region. To do this, I use mathematical models that account for the need for booster doses, properties and availability of current vaccines, the emergence of variants of concern, seasonality, and priority population groups.

Through my research, I aim to help guide ongoing country-level COVID-19 vaccine programs that align with the broader immunisation and health system priorities of individual countries. Sustainable and efficient COVID-19 vaccination policies will ultimately reduce the health and societal impact of COVID-19 for Australia and the region.

I also work on models for for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission and vaccination, to inform target product profiles for RSV vaccines. I have previously worked on estimating the public health impact of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine, supporting World Health Organization decision-making on the use of malaria vaccines in children, and on modelling the health impact of second-generation malaria vaccines in malaria endemic areas.

Prior to beginning this position at UNSW, I was a Research Fellow at the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London (UK), where I hold an Honorary Lectureship position.

  • Book Chapters | 2016
    Hogan AB; Glass K; Moore HC; Anderssen RS, 2016, 'Age Structures in Mathematical Models for Infectious Diseases, with a Case Study of Respiratory Syncytial Virus', in Mathematics for Industry, Springer Japan, pp. 105 - 116, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-55342-7_9
    Book Chapters | 2016
    Hogan AB; Glass K; Moore HC; Anderssen RS, 2016, 'Erratum to: Age Structures in Mathematical Models for Infectious Diseases, with a Case Study of Respiratory Syncytial Virus', in Mathematics for Industry, Springer Japan, pp. E1 - E1, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-55342-7_23
    Book Chapters | 2016
    Wakayama M; Hogan AB; Anderssen RS, 2016, 'The Formation and Launch of the Asia Pacific Consortium of Mathematics for Industry (APCMfI)', in Anderssen RS; Broadbridge P; Fukumoto Y; Kajiwara K; Takagi T; Verbitskiy E; Wakayama M (ed.), Mathematics for Industry, SPRINGER-VERLAG TOKYO, pp. 143 - 147, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-55342-7_13
  • Journal articles | 2022
    Gebremedhin AT; Hogan AB; Blyth CC; Glass K; Moore HC, 2022, 'Developing a prediction model to estimate the true burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in hospitalised children in Western Australia', Scientific Reports, vol. 12, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-04080-3
    Journal articles | 2022
    Haw DJ; Forchini G; Doohan P; Christen P; Pianella M; Johnson R; Bajaj S; Hogan AB; Winskill P; Miraldo M; White PJ; Ghani AC; Ferguson NM; Smith PC; Hauck KD, 2022, 'Optimizing social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission using DAEDALUS', Nature Computational Science, vol. 2, pp. 223 - 233, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43588-022-00233-0
    Journal articles | 2022
    Olivera Mesa D; Hogan AB; Watson OJ; Charles GD; Hauck K; Ghani AC; Winskill P, 2022, 'Modelling the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic.', Commun Med (Lond), vol. 2, pp. 14, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43856-022-00075-x
    Journal articles | 2022
    Watson OJ; Barnsley G; Toor J; Hogan AB; Winskill P; Ghani AC, 2022, 'Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study', The Lancet Infectious Diseases, vol. 22, pp. 1293 - 1302, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00320-6
    Journal articles | 2021
    Hogan AB; Winskill P; Watson OJ; Walker PGT; Whittaker C; Baguelin M; Brazeau NF; Charles GD; Gaythorpe KAM; Hamlet A; Knock E; Laydon DJ; Lees JA; Løchen A; Verity R; Whittles LK; Muhib F; Hauck K; Ferguson NM; Ghani AC, 2021, 'Within-country age-based prioritisation, global allocation, and public health impact of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2: A mathematical modelling analysis', Vaccine, vol. 39, pp. 2995 - 3006, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.04.002
    Journal articles | 2021
    Imai N; Hogan AB; Williams L; Cori A; Mangal TD; Winskill P; Whittles LK; Watson OJ; Knock ES; Baguelin M; Perez-Guzman PN; Gaythorpe KAM; Sonabend R; Ghani AC; Ferguson NM, 2021, 'Interpreting estimates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine efficacy and effectiveness to inform simulation studies of vaccine impact: a systematic review', Wellcome Open Research, vol. 6, pp. 185 - 185, http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16992.1
    Journal articles | 2021
    Prasad N; Read JM; Jewell C; Waite B; Trenholme AA; Huang QS; Grant CC; Newbern EC; Hogan AB, 2021, 'Modelling the impact of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine and immunoprophylaxis strategies in New Zealand', Vaccine, vol. 39, pp. 4383 - 4390, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.05.100
    Journal articles | 2021
    Skarp JE; Downey LE; Ohrnberger JWE; Cilloni L; Hogan AB; Sykes AL; Wang SS; Shah HA; Xiao M; Hauck K, 2021, 'A Systematic Review of the Costs Relating to Non-pharmaceutical Interventions Against Infectious Disease Outbreaks', Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, vol. 19, pp. 673 - 697, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40258-021-00659-z
    Journal articles | 2021
    Unwin HJT; Mwandigha L; Winskill P; Ghani AC; Hogan AB, 2021, 'Analysis of the potential for a malaria vaccine to reduce gaps in malaria intervention coverage', Malaria Journal, vol. 20, http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12936-021-03966-x
    Journal articles | 2021
    Winskill P; Hogan AB; Thwing J; Mwandigha L; Walker PGT; Lambert B, 2021, 'Health inequities and clustering of fever, acute respiratory infection, diarrhoea and wasting in children under five in low- and middle-income countries: a Demographic and Health Surveys analysis', BMC Medicine, vol. 19, http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-02018-0
    Journal articles | 2020
    Campbell PT; Geard N; Hogan AB, 2020, 'Modelling the household-level impact of a maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine in a high-income setting', BMC Medicine, vol. 18, http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01783-8
    Journal articles | 2020
    Hogan AB; Jewell BL; Sherrard-Smith E; Vesga JF; Watson OJ; Whittaker C; Hamlet A; Smith JA; Winskill P; Verity R; Baguelin M; Lees JA; Whittles LK; Ainslie KEC; Bhatt S; Boonyasiri A; Brazeau NF; Cattarino L; Cooper LV; Coupland H; Cuomo-Dannenburg G; Dighe A; Djaafara BA; Donnelly CA; Eaton JW; van Elsland SL; FitzJohn RG; Fu H; Gaythorpe KAM; Green W; Haw DJ; Hayes S; Hinsley W; Imai N; Laydon DJ; Mangal TD; Mellan TA; Mishra S; Nedjati-Gilani G; Parag KV; Thompson HA; Unwin HJT; Vollmer MAC; Walters CE; Wang H; Wang Y; Xi X; Ferguson NM; Okell LC; Churcher TS; Arinaminpathy N; Ghani AC; Walker PGT; Hallett TB, 2020, 'Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study', The Lancet Global Health, vol. 8, pp. e1132 - e1141, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30288-6
    Journal articles | 2020
    Hogan AB; Winskill P; Ghani AC, 2020, 'Estimated impact of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine allocation strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: A modelling study', PLoS Medicine, vol. 17, http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/JOURNAL.PMED.1003377
    Journal articles | 2020
    Sherrard-Smith E; Hogan AB; Hamlet A; Watson OJ; Whittaker C; Winskill P; Ali F; Mohammad AB; Uhomoibhi P; Maikore I; Ogbulafor N; Nikau J; Kont MD; Challenger JD; Verity R; Lambert B; Cairns M; Rao B; Baguelin M; Whittles LK; Lees JA; Bhatia S; Knock ES; Okell L; Slater HC; Ghani AC; Walker PGT; Okoko OO; Churcher TS, 2020, 'The potential public health consequences of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa', Nature Medicine, vol. 26, pp. 1411 - 1416, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-1025-y
    Journal articles | 2020
    Thompson HA; Hogan AB; Walker PGT; White MT; Cunnington AJ; Ockenhouse CF; Ghani AC, 2020, 'Modelling the roles of antibody titre and avidity in protection from Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection following RTS,S/AS01 vaccination', Vaccine, vol. 38, pp. 7498 - 7507, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.09.069
    Journal articles | 2018
    Hogan AB; Winskill P; Verity R; Griffin JT; Ghani AC, 2018, 'Modelling population-level impact to inform target product profiles for childhood malaria vaccines', BMC Medicine, vol. 16, http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-018-1095-6
    Journal articles | 2017
    Hogan AB; Campbell PT; Blyth CC; Lim FJ; Fathima P; Davis S; Moore HC; Glass K, 2017, 'Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV: A mathematical modelling study', Vaccine, vol. 35, pp. 6172 - 6179, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.09.043
    Journal articles | 2017
    Hogan AB; Glass K; Anderssen RS, 2017, 'COMPLEX DEMODULATION: A NOVEL TIME SERIES METHOD for ANALYSING SEASONAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES', ANZIAM Journal, vol. 59, pp. 51 - 60, http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1446181116000377
    Journal articles | 2017
    Hogan AB; Glass K; Anderssen RS, 2017, 'Complex demodulation: a novel time series method for analysing seasonal infectious diseases', ANZIAM Journal, vol. 59, pp. 51 - 51, http://dx.doi.org/10.21914/anziamj.v59i0.10894
    Journal articles | 2017
    Hogan AB; Myerscough MR, 2017, 'A Model for the Spread of an Invasive Weed, Tradescantia fluminensis', Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, vol. 79, pp. 1201 - 1217, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-017-0280-7
    Journal articles | 2017
    Smith RJ; Hogan AB; Mercer GN, 2017, 'Unexpected infection spikes in a model of respiratory syncytial virus vaccination', Vaccines, vol. 5, http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines5020012
    Journal articles | 2016
    Hogan AB; Anderssen RS; Davis S; Moore HC; Lim FJ; Fathima P; Glass K, 2016, 'Time series analysis of RSV and bronchiolitis seasonality in temperate and tropical Western Australia', Epidemics, vol. 16, pp. 49 - 55, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2016.05.001
    Journal articles | 2016
    Hogan AB; Glass K; Moore HC; Anderssen RS, 2016, 'Exploring the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission in children', Theoretical Population Biology, vol. 110, pp. 78 - 85, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tpb.2016.04.003
    Journal articles | 2014
    Moore HC; Jacoby P; Hogan AB; Blyth CC; Mercer GN, 2014, 'Modelling the seasonal epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus in young children', PLoS ONE, vol. 9, http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0100422
  • Preprints | 2022
    Hogan AB; Wu SL; Toor J; Doohan P; Watson OJ; Winskill P; Charles G; Barnsley G; Riley EM; Khoury DS; Ferguson NM; Ghani AC, 2022, Long Term Vaccination Strategies to Mitigate the Global Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission: A Modelling Study, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4135323
    Conference Papers | 2013
    Hogan AB; Mercer GN; Glass K; Moore HC, 2013, 'Modelling the seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus in young children', in Proceedings - 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, MODSIM 2013, pp. 338 - 344
    Preprints |
    Haw D; Forchini G; Christen P; Bajaj S; Hogan A; Winskill P; Miraldo M; White P; Ghani A; Ferguson N; Smith P; Hauck K, The costs of keeping schools open during the COVID-19 pandemic, http://dx.doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-283318/v1
    Preprints |
    Hogan AB; Winskill P; Watson OJ; Walker PGT; Whittaker C; Baguelin M; Brazeau NF; Charles GD; Gaythorpe KAM; Hamlet A; Knock E; Laydon DJ; Lees JA; Løchen A; Verity R; Whittles LK; Muhib F; Hauck K; Ferguson NM; Ghani AC, Within-country age-based prioritisation, global allocation, and public health impact of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2: a mathematical modelling analysis, http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.19.21253960
    Preprints |
    Hogan AB; Wu SL; Doohan P; Watson OJ; Winskill P; Charles G; Barnsley G; Riley EM; Khoury DS; Ferguson NM; Ghani AC, The value of vaccine booster doses to mitigate the global impact of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant, http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2022.01.17.22269222
    Preprints |
    Imai N; Rawson T; Knock ES; Sonabend R; Elmaci Y; Perez-Guzman PN; Whittles LK; Kanapram DT; Gaythorpe KAM; Hinsley W; Djaafara BA; Wang H; Fraser K; FitzJohn RG; Hogan AB; Doohan P; Ghani AC; Ferguson NM; Baguelin M; Cori A, Quantifying the impact of delaying the second COVID-19 vaccine dose in England: a mathematical modelling study, http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2022.08.08.22278528
    Preprints |
    Mesa DO; Hogan A; Watson O; Charles G; Hauck K; Ghani AC; Winskill P, Quantifying the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic, http://dx.doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-343127/v1
    Preprints |
    Unwin HJT; Mwandigha L; Winskill P; Ghani AC; Hogan AB, Analysis of the potential for a malaria vaccine to reduce gaps in malaria intervention coverage, http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.09.20209973

Hogan AB. Mathematical modelling to support policy decisions on COVID-19 vaccination in Australia. NHMRC Investigator Grant (Emerging Leader 1). AU $650,000. (2022–2026)

Hogan AB et al. Modelling the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies. World Health Organization. US $80,000. (2021)

Campbell PT & Hogan AB. Determining the household-level impact of a maternal vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus using an individual-based model. Centre for Research Excellence in Math Modelling to Inform Public Policy, Australia. AU $9,600. (2017–2018)

Associate Investigator, modelling to inform the WHO Malaria Vaccine Implementation Programme (MVIP). PATH. (2017–2021)

Hogan AB. Australian Mathematical Society Lift-Off Fellowship. AU $3,500. (2017)