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Dr Anna Ukkola
Senior Lecturer

Dr Anna Ukkola

Science
Climate Change Research Centre

My research focuses on understanding the effects of climate change, human activities and increasing atmospheric CO2 on vegetation and water resources. In particular, I’m interested in how the frequency and intensity of drought is changing in Australia and globally. My research combines climate and land surface modelling with observations, including remote sensing, hydrological and climate data and flux tower measurements. In my DECRA project, I am exploring whether more realistic land surface processes improve operational seasonal predictions of drought. 
E-mail
a.ukkola@unsw.edu.au
  • Journal articles | 2022
    2022, 'A flux tower dataset tailored for land model evaluation', Earth System Science Data, 14, pp. 449 - 461, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-449-2022
    Journal articles | 2022
    2022, 'Bridge to the future: Important lessons from 20 years of ecosystem observations made by the OzFlux network', Global Change Biology, 28, pp. 3489 - 3514, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16141
    Journal articles | 2022
    2022, 'Explaining changes in rainfall-runoff relationships during and after Australia's Millennium Drought: a community perspective', Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 26, pp. 6073 - 6120, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6073-2022
    Journal articles | 2022
    2022, 'High impact compound events in Australia', Weather and Climate Extremes, 36, pp. 100457 - 100457, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100457
    Journal articles | 2022
    2022, 'How do groundwater dynamics influence heatwaves in southeast Australia?', Weather and Climate Extremes, 37, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100479
    Journal articles | 2022
    2022, 'Increased occurrence of high impact compound events under climate change', npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 5, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00224-4
    Journal articles | 2022
    2022, 'Reconciling historical changes in the hydrological cycle over land', npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 5, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00240-y
    Journal articles | 2022
    2022, 'Thirty-eight years of CO2 fertilization has outpaced growing aridity to drive greening of Australian woody ecosystems', Biogeosciences, 19, pp. 491 - 515, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-491-2022
    Journal articles | 2022
    2022, 'Toward a Robust, Impact-Based, Predictive Drought Metric', Water Resources Research, 58, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031829
    Journal articles | 2022
    2022, 'Towards species-level forecasts of drought-induced tree mortality risk', New Phytologist, 235, pp. 94 - 110, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nph.18129
    Journal articles | 2021
    2021, 'A flux tower dataset tailored for land model evaluation', , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-181
    Journal articles | 2021
    2021, 'Annual precipitation explains variability in dryland vegetation greenness globally but not locally', Global Change Biology, 27, pp. 4367 - 4380, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15729
    Journal articles | 2021
    2021, 'CMIP6 MultiModel Evaluation of Present-Day Heatwave Attributes', Geophysical Research Letters, 48, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095161
    Journal articles | 2021
    2021, 'Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia', Communications Earth and Environment, 2, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00065-8
    Journal articles | 2021
    2021, 'Do CMIP6 Climate Models Simulate Global or Regional Compound Events Skillfully?', Geophysical Research Letters, 48, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091152
    Journal articles | 2021
    2021, 'Evaluating a land surface model at a water-limited site: implications for land surface contributions to droughts and heatwaves', HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, 25, pp. 447 - 471, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-447-2021
    Journal articles | 2021
    2021, 'Examining the vulnerability of Australian eucalypts to future drought-induced tree mortality', , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14527
    Journal articles | 2021
    2021, 'Exploring how groundwater buffers the influence of heatwaves on vegetation function during multi-year droughts', , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-31
    Journal articles | 2021
    2021, 'Exploring how groundwater buffers the influence of heatwaves on vegetation function during multi-year droughts', Earth System Dynamics, 12, pp. 919 - 938, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-919-2021
    Journal articles | 2021
    2021, 'Thirty-eight years of CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization have outpaced growing aridity to drive greening of Australian woody ecosystems', , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-218
    Journal articles | 2020
    2020, 'Evaluating a land surface model at a water-limited site: implications for land surface contributions to droughts and heatwaves', , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-339
    Journal articles | 2020
    2020, 'Global hotspots for the occurrence of compound events', Nature Communications, 11, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19639-3
    Journal articles | 2020
    2020, 'Identifying areas at risk of drought-induced tree mortality across South-Eastern Australia', Global Change Biology, 26, pp. 5716 - 5733, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15215
    Journal articles | 2020
    2020, 'Plant profit maximization improves predictions of European forest responses to drought', New Phytologist, 226, pp. 1638 - 1655, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nph.16376
    Journal articles | 2020
    2020, 'Publisher Correction: Global hotspots for the occurrence of compound events (Nature Communications, (2020), 11, 1, (5956), 10.1038/s41467-020-19639-3)', Nature Communications, 11, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20502-8
    Journal articles | 2020
    2020, 'Rainfall manipulation experiments as simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: Where do we stand?', Global Change Biology, 26, pp. 3336 - 3355, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15024
    Journal articles | 2020
    2020, 'Robust Future Changes in Meteorological Drought in CMIP6 Projections Despite Uncertainty in Precipitation', Geophysical Research Letters, 47, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087820
    Journal articles | 2020
    2020, 'Robust future changes in meteorological drought in CMIP6 projections despite uncertainty in precipitation', , http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10502465.1
    Journal articles | 2020
    2020, 'Ten new insights in climate science 2020- A horizon scan', Global Sustainability, http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/sus.2021.2
    Journal articles | 2020
    2020, 'The role of climate variability in Australian drought', Nature Climate Change, 10, pp. 177 - 179, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0718-z
    Journal articles | 2019
    2019, 'Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5 °c and 2 °c in drying climates: A case study for Melbourne, Australia', Environmental Research Letters, 14, http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab26ef
    Journal articles | 2019
    2019, 'Evaluation of the CABLEv2.3.4 Land Surface Model Coupled to NU-WRFv3.9.1.1 in Simulating Temperature and Precipitation Means and Extremes Over CORDEX AustralAsia Within a WRF Physics Ensemble', Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11, pp. 4466 - 4488, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001845
    Journal articles | 2019
    2019, 'Examining the evidence for decoupling between photosynthesis and transpiration during heat extremes', Biogeosciences, 16, pp. 903 - 916, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-903-2019
    Journal articles | 2019
    2019, 'How representative are FLUXNET measurements of surface fluxes during temperature extremes?', Biogeosciences, 16, pp. 1829 - 1844, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1829-2019
    Journal articles | 2019
    2019, 'Intensification of precipitation extremes in the world's humid and water-limited regions', Environmental Research Letters, 14, http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab1c8e
    Journal articles | 2019
    2019, 'The aridity Index under global warming', Environmental Research Letters, 14, http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5046
    Journal articles | 2018
    Hobeichi S; Abramowitz G; Evans J; Ukkola A, 2018, 'Derived Optimal Linear Combination Evapotranspiration (DOLCE): A global gridded synthesis et estimate', Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22, pp. 1317 - 1336, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1317-2018
    Journal articles | 2018
    Ukkola AM; Pitman AJ; De Kauwe MG; Abramowitz G; Herger N; Evans JP; Decker M, 2018, 'Evaluating CMIP5 model agreement for multiple drought metrics', Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19, pp. 969 - 988, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0099.1
    Journal articles | 2018
    Ukkola AM; Pitman AJ; Donat MG; De Kauwe MG; Angélil O, 2018, 'Evaluating the Contribution of Land-Atmosphere Coupling to Heat Extremes in CMIP5 Models', Geophysical Research Letters, 45, pp. 9003 - 9012, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079102
    Journal articles | 2018
    Wu D; Ciais P; Viovy N; Knapp AK; Wilcox K; Bahn M; Smith MD; Vicca S; Fatichi S; Zscheischler J; He Y; Li X; Ito A; Arneth A; Harper A; Ukkola A; Paschalis A; Poulter B; Peng C; Ricciuto D; Reinthaler D; Chen G; Tian H; Genet H; Mao J; Ingrisch J; Nabel JE S M; Pongratz J; Boysen LR; Kautz M; Schmitt M; Meir P; Zhu Q; Hasibeder R; Sippel S; Dangal SR S; Sitch S; Shi X; Wang Y; Luo Y; Liu Y; Piao S, 2018, 'Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to altered precipitation simulated by ecosystem models across three long-term grassland sites', Biogeosciences, 15, pp. 3421 - 3437, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018
    Journal articles | 2018
    2018, 'Asymmetric Responses of Primary Productivity to Altered Precipitation Simulated by Ecosystem Models across Three Longterm Grassland Sites', Biogeosciences Discussions, pp. 1 - 27, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-53
    Journal articles | 2018
    2018, 'Examining the evidence for sustained transpiration during heat extremes', Biogeosciences Discussions, pp. 1 - 17, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-399
    Journal articles | 2017
    Ukkola AM; Haughton N; De Kauwe MG; Abramowitz G; Pitman AJ, 2017, 'FluxnetLSM R package (v1.0): A community tool for processing FLUXNET data for use in land surface modelling', Geoscientific Model Development, 10, pp. 3379 - 3390, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3379-2017
    Journal articles | 2017
    2017, 'New turbulent resistance parameterization for soil evaporation based on a pore-scale model: Impact on surface fluxes in CABLE', Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 9, pp. 220 - 238, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000832
    Journal articles | 2016
    Ukkola AM; Pitman AJ; Decker M; De Kauwe MG; Abramowitz G; Kala J; Wang YP, 2016, 'Modelling evapotranspiration during precipitation deficits: Identifying critical processes in a land surface model', Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20, pp. 2403 - 2419, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2403-2016
    Journal articles | 2016
    2016, 'Land surface models systematically overestimate the intensity, duration and magnitude of seasonal-scale evaporative droughts', Environmental Research Letters, 11, pp. 104012 - 104012, http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/10/104012
    Journal articles | 2016
    2016, 'Vegetation plays an important role in mediating future water resources', Environmental Research Letters, 11, pp. 094022 - 094022, http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094022
    Journal articles | 2015
    Ukkola AM; Pitman AJ; Decker M; De Kauwe MG; Abramowitz G; Kala J; Wang YP, 2015, 'Modelling evapotranspiration during precipitation deficits: identifying critical processes in a land surface model', Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, pp. 10789 - 10825
    Journal articles | 2014
    Ukkola AM; Murray SJ, 2014, 'Hydrological evaluation of the LPX dynamic global vegetation model for small river catchments in the UK', Hydrological Processes, 28, pp. 1939 - 1950, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9735
    Journal articles | 2013
    Ukkola AM; Prentice IC, 2013, 'A worldwide analysis of trends in water-balance evapotranspiration', Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, pp. 4177 - 4187, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4177-2013
    Journal articles | 2013
    2013, 'A worldwide analysis of trends in water-balance evapotranspiration', Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, pp. 5739 - 5765, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-5739-2013
  • Working Papers | 2019
    2019, Exploring the stationarity of australian temperature, precipitation and pan evaporation records over the last century, IOP PUBLISHING LTD, ARTN 124035, http://dx.doi.org10.1088/1748-9326/ab545c, http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000514833200010&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=891bb5ab6ba270e68a29b250adbe88d1
  • Other | 2023
    2023, Towards species-level forecasts of drought-induced tree mortality risk, , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8249
    Preprints | 2022
    2022, Explaining changes in rainfall-runoff relationships during and after Australia's Millennium Drought: a community perspective, , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-147
    Preprints | 2022
    2022, Opening Pandora's box: How to constrain regional projections of the carbon cycle, , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-623
    Other | 2022
    2022, Towards species-level forecasts of drought-induced tree mortality risk, , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2419
    Conference Presentations | 2021
    2021, 'Evaluating a land surface model at a water-limited site: implications for land surface contributions to droughts and heatwaves', http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4083
    Conference Presentations | 2021
    2021, 'Robust Future Changes in Meteorological Drought in CMIP6 Projections Despite Uncertainty in Precipitation', http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1889
    Other | 2021
    2021, Supplementary material to "A flux tower dataset tailored for land model evaluation", Copernicus GmbH, , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-181-supplement
    Other | 2021
    2021, Supplementary material to "Exploring how groundwater buffers the influence of heatwaves on vegetation function during multi-year droughts", Copernicus GmbH, , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-31-supplement
    Other | 2020
    2020, Supplementary material to "Evaluating a land surface model at a water-limited site: implications for land surface contributions to droughts and heatwaves", Copernicus GmbH, , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-339-supplement
    Other | 2019
    2019, Supplementary material to "How representative are FLUXNET measurements of surface fluxes during temperature extremes?", Copernicus GmbH, , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-502-supplement
    Other | 2015
    2015, Supplementary material to "Modelling evapotranspiration during precipitation deficits: identifying critical processes in a land surface model", Copernicus GmbH, , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-10789-2015-supplement