About us

Mathematical modelling has transformed our understanding of the dynamics and control of infectious diseases, through concepts such as the reproduction number, herd immunity, and theory of epidemics.

In our group, we use infectious disease models to inform the design, implementation, and effectiveness of population health interventions, particularly vaccines and immunotherapeutics.

In pursuing these outcomes, we draw on a diverse range of mathematical and statistical techniques, including differential equations, computational methods, stochastic processes, and optimisation theory.

We are motivated by seeing insights from our work become tangible policy and practice outcomes. This is reflected by our contributions to national and global vaccine policy, and membership of peak advisory bodies such as ATAGI and the WHO IVIR-AC.

We welcome expressions of interest from prospective research students or postdoctoral staff.

Our people

Professor James Wood
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Scientia Lecturer Alexandra Hogan
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Our work

Our projects

School collaborators

Professor David Muscatello
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Collaborate with us

Are you a student or post-doctoral fellow looking to colloborate? We have projects available related to topics on COVID-19, RSV, and influenza, including:

  • Vaccination for longer-term COVID-19 mitigation in Australia
  • COVID-19-induced interruptions to transmission of respiratory pathogens
  • Approaches to modelling SARS-COV-2 immunity
  • Capturing maternally-derived immunity models for RSV
  • Revised models of interventions to inform future pandemic planning
  • Integration of novel surveillance data in models of respiratory pathogen control 

Please contact james.wood@unsw.edu.au or alexandra.hogan@unsw.edu.au for more information.

Our publications

  • 2023

    Bents SJ; Viboud C; Grenfell BT; Hogan AB; Tempia S; von Gottberg A; Moyes J; Walaza S; Hansen C; Cohen C; Baker RE, 2023, 'Modeling the impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa', Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses, 17, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irv.13229

    Conway E; Walker CR; Baker C; Lydeamore MJ; Ryan GE; Campbell T; Miller JC; Rebuli N; Yeung M; Kabashima G; Geard N; Wood J; McCaw JM; McVernon J; Golding N; Price DJ; Shearer FM, 2023, 'COVID-19 vaccine coverage targets to inform reopening plans in a low incidence setting', Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 290, pp. 20231437, http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.1437

    Hogan AB; Doohan P; Wu SL; Mesa DO; Toor J; Watson OJ; Winskill P; Charles G; Barnsley G; Riley EM; Khoury DS; Ferguson NM; Ghani AC, 2023, 'Estimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach', Nature Communications, 14, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39736-3

    Hogan AB; Wu SL; Toor J; Mesa DO; Doohan P; Watson OJ; Winskill P; Charles G; Barnsley G; Riley EM; Khoury DS; Ferguson NM; Ghani AC, 2023, 'Long-term vaccination strategies to mitigate the impact of SARS-CoV-2 transmission: A modelling study', PLoS Medicine, 20, http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004195

    Imai N; Rawson T; Knock ES; Sonabend R; Elmaci Y; Perez-Guzman PN; Whittles LK; Kanapram DT; Gaythorpe KAM; Hinsley W; Djaafara BA; Wang H; Fraser K; FitzJohn RG; Hogan AB; Doohan P; Ghani AC; Ferguson NM; Baguelin M; Cori A, 2023, 'Quantifying the effect of delaying the second COVID-19 vaccine dose in England: a mathematical modelling study', The Lancet Public Health, 8, pp. e174 - e183, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(22)00337-1

    Jayasundara D; Randall D; Sheridan S; Sheppeard V; Liu B; Richmond PC; Blyth CC; Wood JG; Moore HC; McIntyre PB; Gidding HF, 2023, 'Estimating the excess burden of pertussis disease in Australia within the first year of life, that might have been prevented through timely vaccination', International journal of epidemiology, 52, pp. 250 - 259, http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyac175

    McHugh L; Dyda A; Guglielmino C; Buckley C; Lau CL; Jennison AV; Regan DG; Wood J; Whiley D; Trembizki E, 2023, 'The changing epidemiology of Neisseria gonorrhoeae genogroups and antimicrobial resistance in Queensland, Australia, 2010-15: A case series analysis of unique Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates', Sexual Health, 20, pp. 296 - 302, http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/SH22118

    Padeniya TN; Hui BB; Wood JG; Seib KL; Regan DG, 2023, 'The potential impact of a vaccine on Neisseria gonorrhoeae prevalence among heterosexuals living in a high prevalence setting', Vaccine, 41, pp. 5553 - 5561, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.07.048

    Tobin RJ; Wood JG; Jayasundara D; Sara G; Walker CR; Martin GE; McCaw JM; Shearer FM; Price DJ, 2023, 'Real-time analysis of hospital length of stay in a mixed SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta epidemic in New South Wales, Australia', BMC Infectious Diseases, 23, http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-022-07971-6

    Wood JG; Heywood AE; Dennington PM; Lloyd AR; Ziegler JB, 2023, 'Trends in intravenous immunoglobulin use in New South Wales, Australia', Internal Medicine Journalhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1111/imj.16175