Mathematical modelling of longer-term vaccine booster strategies for COVID-19

Abstract

Mathematical modelling has been a key component of both real-time decision-making and longer-term planning for COVID-19 and has been widely used to inform decisions on vaccine strategies. I will discuss our work on developing mathematical models for SARS-CoV-2 transmission, incorporating complexities such as age-based vaccine distribution, and the immunological mechanisms underpinning COVID-19 vaccine protection. I will further describe how we used these models to simulate future vaccine booster dose strategies for COVID-19 in representative country settings, considering the potential future emergence of new variants with modified transmission, immune escape, and severity properties. I will present broad findings and discuss the extent to which future regular vaccine boosting has the potential to mitigate the global impact of COVID-19.