Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting: Live Better Between Complete Randomness and Complete Predictability

Abstract

Earthquake hazards pose serious threats to communities, infrastructure, and economies worldwide, as demonstrated by recent devastating events like the February 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquake, which resulted in over 50,000 deaths and widespread destruction. Such disasters highlight the urgent need for effective earthquake prediction and preparedness. Many hope that scientists might one day predict these events in advance, allowing for preventive actions to save lives and property. However, ongoing seismological research acknowledges that predicting the exact time and location of future major earthquakes remains challenging. Even so, there is still a significant range between complete randomness and full predictability in earthquake forecasting. Beginning by discussing how to quantify predictability, this presentation will outline the current state of earthquake forecasting from an information-theoretic perspective, and trace the development of statistical models used for earthquake forecasting.